DAILY CURRENCY OUTLOOK

* AUD pushes higher against all major currencies
* Focus on US data tonight/tomorrow
* Best wishes for Christmas and Happy New Year

In a sea of green, the AUD opens this morning slightly higher against all major currencies. Against the USD, the Aussie climbed slowly through the night from its close of 0.6671 to a high of 0.6725 before drifting off. Trading was relatively light, and with no economic data yesterday or overnight, the Aussie recovered some of its losses from late Tuesday. The main factors driving the Aussie lower on Tuesday were the release of the RBA minutes (from the 6th Dec. meeting) and a report from the World Bank forecasting a lower GDP outlook for China in 2023. The RBA minutes revealed the Board considered all options regarding the cash rate – a pause, a 25-basis point hike or a larger 50bps hike. The decision to go with the more moderate 25bps hike was made on the wait and see approach (as to the lag effect of previous hikes) and that any course change would create uncertainty. Markets sold the Aussie due to the consideration of a possible pause. With little data remaining for the year, we will likely continue to see more choppy trading in the coming weeks.

Please note this is our last Daily Currency Outlook for the year – we will be back week of 9 January!

Economic Calendar: Mon 19th – Fri 23rd December
Day AEDT Event Impact Consensus Previous
Mon 11:30am AUD Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook Med Report  
Tues 11:30am AUD RBA Meeting Minutes (from 6 Dec) HIGH Report  
  12:15pm CNY PBoC Interest Rate Decision HIGH 3.65% 3.65%
  1pm JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision HIGH -0.1% -0.1%
  11:30pm USD Building Permits (MoM) (Nov) Med 1.47M 1.512M
  11:30pm USD Housing Starts (MoM) (Nov) Med 1.415M 1.425M
Thur 5pm GBP Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q3) HIGH -0.2% -0.2%
  11:30pm USD Gross Domestic Product Annualized (Q3) HIGH 2.9% 2.9%
  11:30pm USD Initial Jobless Claims (Dec 16) Med 211K
Fri 9:30am JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes HIGH Report  
  11:30pm USD Durable Goods Orders (Nov) HIGH 0% 1.1%
  11:30pm USD Nondefense Capital Goods Orders (Nov) HIGH 0% 0.6%

 

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