• RBA, Non-Farm Payrolls & FOMC minutes being high-impact events for this week.
• AUD/USD has seen strong support at 66c, so we could see a range/consolidation play this week.
• Expecting the AUDUSD to range between 0.6600 and 0.6720 this week on technical analysis.
- We have some key US data coming out this week, which could see additional support for the USD.
- The FOMC minutes for June’s meeting will emphasise the need to continue increasing rates to combat inflation.
- Non-Farm Payrolls will also be closely watched as expectations are above forecasts, adding to USD strength.
- US markets will be closed on Tuesday for Independence Day.
- RBA’s policy meeting on Tuesday will be key to the Australian economic outlook and potential market mover.
- No change to the cash rate is expected, but there is a strong risk for another surprise 25bp hike.
- OIS pricing suggests a 25% of 25bp hike.
- A hike would support the AUD/USD by around 50pips provided it isn’t offset by a dovish FOMC.
- If there is no change or any dovish sentiment, that could bring AUD modestly lower.
- China’s economic outlook highlights weakness and volatility in CNH, which could influence AUD/USD.
| Economic Calendar: Mon 26th June 2023 – Fri 30th June 2023 (High Impact) (AU/US) | |||||
| Day | Time | Event | Country | Forecast | Previous |
| Tues | 2:30pm | Cash Rate / RBA Rate Statement | AU | 4.10% | 4.10% |
| Wed | All Day | OPEC Meetings | Global | – | – |
| Thur | 4:00am | FOMC Meeting Minutes | US | – | – |
| 10:15pm | ADP Non-Farm Employment Change | US | 236K | 278K | |
| 10:30pm | Unemployment Claims | US | 247K | 239K | |
| Fri | 12:00am | ISM Services PMI | US | 51.3 | 50.3 |
| JOLTS Job Openings | US | 9.94M | 10.10M | ||
| 10:30pm | Average Hourly Earnings m/m | US | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| Non-Farm Employment Change | US | 222K | 339K | ||
| Unemployment Rate | US | 3.6% | 3.7% | ||