- RBNZ Cash Rate & US CPI are the key high-impact events for this week.
- AUD/USD has seen strong support at 66c, so we could see a range/consolidation play this week.
- Expecting the AUDUSD to range between 0.6630 and 0.6730 this week on technical analysis.
- Expecting for USD to gain a bit of strength this week from key economic events potentially working in its favour.
- The monthly CPI readings will be closely watched this week as there is an expected drop of almost 1% y/y from last month’s read.
- This could have a significant effect on global markets as inflation is declining rapidly, which will feed into potential rate cuts early next year.
- With core CPI also expected to drop slightly, this will also work in favour of the USD and overall USD strength.
- If the US recession card is played, this may change the market dynamic, making the USD a safe-haven currency.
- We could see the AUD/USD reach down to 0.6600 which is our lower pivot level due to brief USD strength from economic data and that safe haven status.
| Economic Calendar: Mon 10th July 2023 – Fri 14th July 2023 (High Impact) (AU/US) | |||||
| Day | Time | Event | Country | Forecast | Previous |
| Wed | 12:00pm | RBNZ Cash Rate / Rate Statement | NZ | 5.50% | 5.50% |
| 1:10pm | RBA Gov Lowe Speech | AU | N/A | N/A | |
| 10:30pm | CPI y/y | US | 3.1% | 4.0% | |
| Core CPI m/m | US | 0.3% | 0.4% | ||
| Thur | 10:30pm | Core PPI m/m | US | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| PPI m/m | US | 0.2% | -0.3% | ||
| Unemployment Claims | US | 251K | 248K | ||
| Sat | 12:00am | Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment | US | 65.5 | 64.4 |