WEEKLY CURRENCY OUTLOOK

• This week, we have multiple high impact data releases for both AU & US markets.
• The AUDUSD is still subject to strong selling pressure but may find some relief with the RBA data.
• Expecting the AUDUSD to range between 0.6570 and 0.6720 this week on technical analysis.

• We expect this week to be volatile for the AUD/USD with Non-Farm Payrolls & RBA cash rate decisions.
• There has been a recent fall in jobless claims, which is an indicator that non-farm payrolls and earnings are likely to be positive this month.
• US banks have also tightened their lending criteria which can support the FOMC’s decision to potentially cutting rates over the coming months, which can weigh down on the USD.
• The RBA announcement is expected to weigh in on the AUD/USD on Tuesday.
• Expecting the Aussie to lift around ½ cent if the RBA decides to hike by 25bps.
• There is a gap between what economists expect and what the market is pricing.
• Markets are only pricing a small chance of a rate rise this week, while economists are split between a 25bp hike and a hold.
Any positivity arising from the decision will temporarily benefit the Aussie, considering there has been strong selling pressure over the last 2 weeks from a technical perspective.