WEEKLY CURRENCY OUTLOOK

• This week, we have high-impact data releases for the US market with a bank holiday in AU.
• The AUDUSD is still subject to strong selling pressure but may find some relief with US CPI.
• Expecting the AUDUSD to range between 0.6480 and 0.6700 this week on technical analysis.

• Big week for US inflation numbers released, risk sentiment remains weak.
• USD can gain some modest support if CPI numbers are higher than expectations.
• Conversely, numbers lower than expected can soften the USD as a risk for earlier rate rises increases.
• Market (Fed Funds futures) is still pricing in rate cuts in mid-2024.
• AUD/USD has been declining significantly since mid-July, primarily due to weaker commodity prices and overall risk sentiment.
• Huge news coming out of the US credit market following Fitch’s downgrade of US long-term sovereign credit rating from AAA to AA+, which drove markets mad.
• A bank holiday on Monday meant the FX market was closed in Australia, resulting in low liquidity.
• There are no major AU data releases this week, therefore, the US will be in the driver’s seat.

We anticipate AUD/USD could test its lower pivotal point of 0.6480 this week.