• AU market data heavy this week, with RBA, GDP figures & Gov Lowe’s speech out.
• Aussie is still in a consolidation phase, ranging between support and resistance.
• Expecting the AUDUSD to range between 0.6390 and 0.6510 this week on technical analysis.
• We expect the USD to continue consolidating this week with a public holiday on Monday and minimal high-impact economic data released this week to guide market expectations for FOMC (interest rate decisions).
• The market is still pricing in a rate hike of 25bps, given how strong the US economy has displayed resilience.
• Further FOMC tightening can provide the USD with some support, therefore seeing the Aussie fall over the course.
• The AU market has the RBA cash rate decision on Tuesday, where it’s widely expected to leave rates on hold for a 3rd consecutive meeting.
• Markets are pricing a 0% chance of a rate change, meaning, if there is one, markets are going to react heavily, especially if the statement shifts the tone for guidance.
• In fact, the RBA’s cash rate of 4.10% is lower than most other major central banks globally, despite us starting the hiking cycle quite early.
• AUD/USD can be supported by any further credible Chinese stimulus plans.
| Economic Calendar: Mon 4th September 2023 – Fri 8th September 2023 (High Impact) (AU/US) | |||||
| Day | Time (AEST) | Event | Country | Forecast | Previous |
| Mon | All Day | Public Holiday | US | N/A | N/A |
| Tues | 2:30pm | Cash Rate & RBA Statement | AU | 4.10% | 4.10% |
| Wed | 11:30am | GDP q/q | AU | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Thur | 12:00am | ISM Services PMI | US | 52.5 | 52.7 |
| 1:10pm | RBA Gov Lowe Speaks | AU | N/A | N/A | |
| 10:30pm | Unemployment Claims | US | 235K | 228K | |
Source: forexfactory.com