Summary
• Heavy market data this week, with US CPI & AU Employment figures headlining.
• Aussie is still in a consolidation phase, ranging between key support and resistance.
• Expecting the AUDUSD to range between 0.6330 and 0.6450 this week on technical analysis.
• USD has safe haven status, therefore as the world economy deteriorates, the USD strengthens.
• If US CPI increases, this will mean the need to leave rates higher for longer, therefore supporting the USD.
• It is widely expected that the US will enter into a recession, albeit mild at a minimum.
• Recessions historically provide support to the USD.
• The Aussie is being weighed down by Chinese economic data, negative credit spreads with USD and other currencies, falling commodity prices & weaker than expected local data.
• We still anticipate the Aussie has more room to the downside before reversing the trend and moving back upwards, per our range forecasts above.
• We anticipate AU employment to grow by almost 26k from last month, with the unemployment rate remaining the same.
• However, any positivity arising from the labour numbers can give a temporary rise to the Aussie, as the global economic backdrop is still bleak.
| Economic Calendar: Mon 11th September 2023 – Fri 15th September 2023 (High Impact) (AU/US) | |||||
| Day | Time (AEST) | Event | Country | Forecast | Previous |
| Wed | 10:30pm | CPI m/m & y/y | US | 0.6%/3.6% | 0.2%/3.2% |
| Thur | 11:30am | Employment Change | AU | 25.9K | -14.6K |
| Unemployment Rate | AU | 3.7% | 3.7% | ||
| 10:30pm | PPI | US | 0.4% | 0.3% | |
| Retail Sales | US | 0.2% | 0.7% | ||
| Unemployment Claims | US | 225K | 216K | ||
| Fri | 10:30pm | Empire State Manufacturing Index | US | -9.5 | -19.0 |
| Sat | 12:00am | Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment | US | 69.2 | 69.5 |
Source: forexfactory.com