• FOMC statement in the US being the key headliner this week and potentially market moving.
• Aussie is still in a consolidation phase, ranging between key support and resistance.
• Expecting the AUDUSD to range between 0.6380 and 0.6480 this week on technical analysis.
• Interest rate week for the US – FOMC call.
• USD is expected to continue its uptrend.
• Softening inflation numbers & a loose labour market may support the FOMC to keep its rates on hold this week.
• However, FOMC still anticipates one more rate hike in this cycle, but the question is… when?
• Another rate hike will keep the USD supported.
• AUD/USD will take its cues from the offshore markets, mainly the FOMC call this week.
• AUD/USD is starting to make gains and moving out of the consolidation phase.
• RBA September policy minutes are released on Tuesday and will provide further insights into any additional rate hikes or RBA sentiment.
• At this stage, it’s unlikely that the RBA will increase any further, given CPI is dropping meaningfully.
• Economists are still predicting rate cuts in H1 2024, whilst markets are pricing a 25% chance of a rate cut in H2 2024.
• Any change in this sentiment can have an impact on the AUD/USD.
| Economic Calendar: Mon 18th September 2023 – Fri 22nd September 2023 (High Impact) (AU/US) | |||||
| Day | Time (AEST) | Event | Country | Forecast | Previous |
| Tues | 11:30am | Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes | AU | N/A | N/A |
| Thur | 4:00am | Federal Funds Rate / FOMC Statement | US | 5.50% | 5.50% |
| 4:30am | FOMC Press Conference | US | N/A | N/A | |
| 10:30pm | Unemployment Claims | US | 222K | 220K | |
| Fri | 11:45pm | Flash Manufacturing PMI | US | 47.9 | 47.9 |
| Flash Services PMI | US | 50.8 | 50.5 | ||
Source: forexfactory.com