• Speeches, AU CPI & PCE Price Index are the key focuses for this week for both AU & US.
• Aussie is currently sitting around 63c, still showing signs of weakness.
• Expecting the AUDUSD to range between 0.6280 and 0.6370 this week on technical analysis.
• Expecting USD to consolidate this week.
• Key US events include Fed Powell speech, Flash PMI, Advance GDP and PCE index, which are not entirely market-moving data points but do provide insights into how the economy is faring as a whole and unlikely to move the needle with interest rates.
• Markets are pricing <1/3 chance for another rate hike this cycle; however, it appears the Fed may have peaked.
• The Israel/Palestina conflict continues to weigh heavily on the USD, providing some strength, albeit minor.
• AUD/USD will likely consolidate this week due to weak USD and potential AU data, including CPI.
• Rising geopolitical instability & the weak global outlook remain heavily on the Aussie.
• Overall, there is bearish sentiment for the Aussie.
• Key local AU data includes Gov Bullock’s speech AU CPI (headliner), which can potentially move the AU & change the interest rate rhetoric.
• A stronger-than-expected CPI is positive for the Aussie, which could see a potential hike in November, where markets are pricing >25%.
| Economic Calendar: Mon 23rd October 2023 – 27th October 2023 (High Impact) (AU/US) | |||||
| Day | Time (AEDT) | Event | Country | Forecast | Previous |
| Tues | 7:00pm | RBA Gov Bullock Speaks | AU | N/A | N/A |
| Wed | 12:45am | Flash Manufacturing PMI | US | 49.5 | 49.8 |
| Flash Services PMI | US | 49.9 | 50.1 | ||
| 11:30am | CPI q/q & y/y | AU | 1.1% / 5.4% | 0.8% / 5.2% | |
| Thur | 7:35am | Fed Chair Powell Speaks | US | N/A | N/A |
| 11:30pm | Advance GDP q/q | US | 4.3% | 2.1% | |
| Unemployment Claims | US | 209K | 198K | ||
| Fri | 11:30pm | Core PCE Price Index m/m | US | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Sat | 1:00am | Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment | US | 63.0 | 63.0 |
Source: forexfactory.com