Summary
• Super heavy data for AU & US markets this week with FOMC, CPI/PPI & Employment headlining.
• Aussie is currently under bearish pressure, sitting under 66c, after a strong bearish move last week.
• Expecting the AUDUSD to range between 0.6500 and 0.6670 this week on technical analysis.
• The Australian Labour Force, although minimal given the forecasted numbers, however a material change in this, especially the unemployment rate, may boost the AUS/USD.
• USD could ease this week after a solid bearish move last week.
• We have high-impact USD data this week, including CPI/PPI, and FOMC rate call, to name a few, which could have a material impact on the USD heading into the Xmas & NY period.
• FOMC is expected to keep the Fed Funds rate on hold, given that CPI has been decreasing consistently over the last few months and is now close to the target range. The question will remain: when will the first cut come into play in 2024?
• All eyes will also be on the CPI/PPI numbers to indicate where inflation sits in the scenario and whether a rate cut is sooner than anticipated.
| Economic Calendar: Mon 11th December 2023 – Fri 15th December 2023 (High Impact) (AU/US) | |||||
| Day | Time (AEDT) | Event | Country | Forecast | Previous |
| Tues | 9:20am | RBA Gov Bullock Speaks | AU | N/A | N/A |
| Wed | 12:30am | Core CPI m/m & CPI y/y | US | 0.3% / 3.1% | 0.2% / 3.2% |
| Thur | 12:30am | Core PPI m/m & PPI m/m | US | 0.2% / 0.1% | 0.0%/-0.5% |
| 6:00am | Federal Funds Rate / Statement | US | 5.50% | 5.50% | |
| 6:30am | FOMC Press Conference | US | N/A | N/A | |
| 11:30am | Employment Change | AU | 10K | 55K | |
| Unemployment Rate | AU | 3.8% | 3.7% | ||
| Fri | 12:30am | Retail Sales m/m | US | -0.1% | -0.1% |
| Unemployment Claims | US | 223K | 220K | ||
| Sat | 1:45am | Flash Manufacturing PMI | US | 49.3 | 49.4 |
Source: forexfactory.com