• Retail sales & employment numbers are headlining for US & AU markets, respectively, this week.
• Expecting Aussie to consolidate this week & fluctuate around the 66 ½ – 67c mark.
• Not expecting much volatility, as businesses are slowly returning back from the holidays.
• Expecting the Aussie/US dollar to maintain its consolidation phase price action this week, moving sideways between 66c – 67c.
• AU employment is headlining this week with an expected change of 15k+ and an unemployment rate of around 3.9%. If these figures vary significantly, we could see a spike in the Aussie.
• Similarly, in the US market, retail sales are headlining with an expected 0.4% increase, indicating that consumer expenditure is still steady despite a high-interest rate environment.
• We don’t foresee any interest rate cuts until H2 24, despite the US indicating they may start cutting in H1 24. AU inflation rate is still relatively high, although it is on track to reach the 2-3% range by next year potentially.
| Economic Calendar: Mon 15th January 2024 – Fri 19th January 2024 (High Impact) (AU/US) | |||||
| Day | Time (AEDT) | Event | Country | Forecast | Previous |
| Tues | All Day | Bank Holiday | US | N/A | N/A |
| Wed | 12:30am | Empire State Manufacturing Index | US | -4.9 | -14.5 |
| Thur | 12:30am | Retail Sales m/m | US | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| 11:30am | Employment Change | AU | 15.4K | 61.5K | |
| 11:30am | Unemployment Rate | AU | 3.9% | 3.9% | |
| Fri | 12:30am | Unemployment Claims | US | 204K | 202K |
| Sat | 2:00am | Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment | US | 69.3 | 69.7 |
Source: forexfactory.com