• US CPI & AU Employment to be the key headliners this week.
• A strong CPI number can result in USD weakness, and weak employment result in weak AUD
• We expect the AUDUSD pair to experience medium volatility and range from 0.6482 to 0.6553.
• Chinese markets are closed this week to observe the Lunar New year, so US CPI & Australian employment will be the key headliners for this week.
• We expect US CPI to fall once again this month to 2.9% from 3.4% (within target range) which is a meaningful decrease, once again highlighting the closeness of potential rate cuts by the Fed. Should the actual meet forecast, we could see further weakness in USD.
• However, the FOMC want evidence to suggest that the inflation rate will remain closer to the 2% rate before they start considering rate cuts.
• Australian labour expects a slight jump in employment for January, however, a slight increase in the unemployment rate as well potentially ticking to 4.0% from 3.9%. A weak employment number can add to AUD weakness.
| Economic Calendar: Mon 12th February 2024 – Fri 16th February 2024 (High Impact) (AU/US) | |||||
| Day | Time (AEDT) | Event | Country | Forecast | Previous |
| Wed | 12:30am | Core CPI m/m & CPI y/y | US | 0.3% / 2.9% | 0.3% / 3.4% |
| Thur | 11:30am | Employment Change | AU | 20.7K | -65.1K |
| Unemployment Rate | AU | 4.0% | 3.9% | ||
| Fri | 12:30am | Retail Sales m/m | US | -0.2% | 0.6% |
| Empire State Manufacturing Index | US | -11.9 | -43.7 | ||
| Unemployment Claims | US | 217K | 218K | ||
| Sat | 12:30am | PPI m/m | US | 0.1% | -0.1% |
| Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment | US | 79.9 | 79.0 | ||
Source: forexfactory.com