• Policy minutes for both AUS & US headlining this week, key commentary on rate movements.
• A public holiday in the US also means thin liquidity & Wage Price Index, a key driver for AUD.
• We expect the AUDUSD pair to experience medium volatility and range from 0.6467 to 0.6569.
• Given the recent CPI reading in the US, pricing for the start of rate cuts has been pushed back materially.
• The minutes from the FOMC meeting for January will provide some additional insights into the Fed’s perspective on the next rate cut. Not expecting the market to move materially on this news.
• AUD/USD can potentially lift higher based on minimal USD-driven data finding resistance around 0.6569.
• The Wage Price Index will be the key headliner potentially driving the AUD this week, with a forecast of +0.9% q/q, although it is expected to have decelerated significantly from the last reading of 1.3%, which may weigh on the AUD.
• With global talks around when the Fed will make its first move, it is likely that it may be in May, with three cuts priced in as opposed to 6 this year.
| Economic Calendar: Mon 19th February 2024 – Fri 23rd February 2024 (High Impact) (AU/US) | |||||
| Day | Time (AEDT) | Event | Country | Forecast | Previous |
| Tues | All Day | Bank Holiday | US | N/A | N/A |
| 11:30am | Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes | AU | N/A | N/A | |
| Wed | 12:30pm | Wage Price Index q/q | AU | 0.9% | 1.3% |
| Thur | 6:00am | FOMC Meeting Minutes | US | N/A | N/A |
| Fri | 12:30am | Unemployment Claims | US | 217K | 212K |
| 1:45am | Flash Manufacturing PMI | US | 50.1 | 50.7 | |
| Flash Services PMI | US | 52.0 | 52.5 | ||
Source: forexfactory.com