• US data heavy this week with key data including US CPI, PPI & Retail Sales.
• CPI & PPI are expected to remain flat at 3.1% & 0.3% respectively, with minimal impact on USD.
• We expect the AUDUSD to experience medium-level volatility and range from 0.6590 to 0.6703.
• AUDUSD will generally be guided by the USD this week, given the high-impact data coming out of the US, which could shape the direction of the trend post-CPI numbers.
• If CPI is higher than expected, this is positive for the currency, meaning rate cuts are further delayed and vice versa.
• US non-farm payrolls rose by 275k in February. However, last months’ 353k increase was downwardly revised down to 229k (a huge decrease).
• The unemployment rate rose to 3.9%, from 3.7%, which is a huge jump, as companies are starting to lay off staff due to higher & stickier costs (restructuring).
• The AUDUSD is on an uptrend at the moment and expect this to continue unless data suggests otherwise.
| Economic Calendar: Mon 11th March 2024 – 15th March 2024 (High Impact) (AU/US) | |||||
| Day | Time (AEDT) | Event | Country | Forecast | Previous |
| Tues | 11:30pm | CPI m/m | US | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| CPI y/y | US | 3.1% | 3.1% | ||
| Thur | 11:30pm | PPI m/m | US | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Retail Sales m/m | US | 0.8% | -0.8% | ||
| Unemployment Claims | US | 218K | 217K | ||
| Fri | 11:30pm | Empire State Manufacturing Index | US | -7.6 | -2.4 |
| Sat | 1:00am | Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment | US | 77.3 | 76.9 |
Source: forexfactory.com