• Low impact data this week suggests low volatility levels and potential consolidation.
• RBA & FOMC Minutes are the headliners to provide commentary on future interest rate cuts.
• Expect the AUDUSD to consolidate this week until data release and range from 0.6610 to 0.6745.
• USD is expected to consolidate this week due to the lack of USD-related high-impact events.
• AUD could receive a slight boost from the RBA minutes if the rhetoric remains hawkish.
• AUD/USD is expected to trade sideways this week due to a lack of AUD/USD high-impact data, so very choppy price action.
• The minutes from both the FOMC & RBA may provide some directional bias for the currency pair, however minimal, unless there is a significant rhetorical change in the commentary.
• The general gist from both recent board meetings is that rate hikes were considered but unlikely to be actioned, so the rhetoric will remain higher until inflation drops within the target range.
• CBA economists are still forecasting November to be the first rate cut in 2024 for AU.
| Economic Calendar: Mon 20th May 2024 – Fri 24th May 2024 (High Impact) (AU/US) | |||||
| Day | Time (AEDT) | Event | Country | Forecast | Previous |
| Tues | 11:30am | Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes | AU | N/A | N/A |
| Thur | 4:00am | FOMC Meeting Minutes | US | N/A | N/A |
| 10:30pm | Unemployment Claims | US | 221K | 222K | |
| 11:45pm | Flash Manufacturing PMI | US | 50.1 | 50.0 | |
| Flash Services PMI | US | 51.5 | 51.3 | ||
| Sat | 12:00am | Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment | US | 67.7 | 67.4 |
Source: forexfactory.com