A huge week with US CPI, FOMC, and AU Employment numbers released = high volatility.
• CPI expected same 3.4%, Fed Funds = same 5.50%, AU employment = 30.5K+ (4.0% unemp. rate)
• Expect the AUDUSD to continue consolidating this week, ranging from 0.6539 to 0.6660.
• AUD lost almost 1c last week due to the NFP figures beating expectations.
• This week, we have 3 headliners, including US CPI, Fed Funds Rate, and AU Employment data, which are market-moving.
• US CPI y/y is expected to remain the same, around 3.4%, which is somewhat positive for the AUD.
• The Fed funds rate is also expected to remain the same at 5.50%; however, the US CPI number will be critical in determining the forward guidance for the next meeting.
• AU employment is expected to remain in a slight positive change of 30.5K and the unemployment rate drop to 4.0% from 4.1% which is positive for the AUD.
• Risk is to the upside this week!
| Economic Calendar: Mon 10rd June 2024 – Fri 14th June 2024 (High Impact) (AU/US) | |||||
| Day | Time (AEDT) | Event | Country | Forecast | Previous |
| Wed | 10:30pm | CPI m/m | US | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| CPI y/y | US | 3.4% | 3.4% | ||
| Thur | 4:00am | Federal Funds Rate / Statement | US | 5.50% | 5.50% |
| 11:30am | Employment Change | AU | 30.5K | 38.5K | |
| Unemployment Rate | AU | 4.0% | 4.1% | ||
| 10:30pm | PPI m/m | US | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| Unemployment Claims | US | 225K | 229K | ||
| Sat | 12:00am | Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment | US | 72.5 | 69.1 |
Source: forexfactory.com
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