• Relatively high impact week with the RBA announcement headlining.
• RBA expected to leave cash rate @ 4.35%, but mindful of forward guidance impacting currency.
• Expect the AUDUSD to rebound this week, ranging from 0.6559 to 0.6687.
• The Aussie reversed all its gains from the previous week due to the US CPI & FOMC releases.
• Financial markets are pricing an almost certain outcome of NO CHANGE to the RBA’s cash rate this time, remaining at 4.35%, which is still beneficial for the AUD. However, keep your eyes/ears peeled on the RBA statement, which can provide hints on forward guidance and rate cuts that may impact the price.
• Economists are suggesting the US may have two rate cuts this year, although one is almost certain.
• US retail sales and manufacturing/services PMI may have weighed in on the USD, providing some support for gains.
• We expect the AUD to consolidate this week but maintain a bearish bias.
| Economic Calendar: Mon 17th June 2024 – Fri 21st June 2024 (High Impact) (AU/US) | |||||
| Day | Time (AEDT) | Event | Country | Forecast | Previous |
| Mon | 10:30pm | Empire State Manufacturing Index | US | -12.5 | -15.6 |
| Tues | 2:30pm | Cash Rate / Statement | AU | 4.35% | 4.35% |
| 10:30pm | Core Retail Sales m/m | US | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| Retail Sales m/m | US | 0.3% | 0.0% | ||
| Thur | 10:30pm | Unemployment Claims | US | 235K | 242K |
| 11:45pm | Flash Manufacturing PMI | US | 51.0 | 51.3 | |
| Flash Services PMI | US | 53.4 | 54.8 | ||
Source: forexfactory.com