• Relatively low impact week with main headliners AU CPI & US Core PCE inflator.
• AU CPI (monthly) is expected to drop by 0.1% to 3.5% from 3.6%, negatively impacting AUD pairs.
• Expect the AUDUSD to rebound with a bullish bias this week, ranging from 0.6590 to 0.6684.
• AUD is likely to trade between the above range this week, with impact expected from AU CPI.
• We expect the AUD to fall by 0.1% to 3.5% from 3.6%, per most economists’ forecasts. This is negative for the AUD, as lower CPI means an earlier chance of a rate cut, although the monthly indicator isn’t as impactful as the quarterly.
• The USD is likely to consolidate this week. The main economic data is the PCE report, which can also impact the USD, although nothing major is expected.
• The PCE report is likely to indicate a 0.1% increase, compared to a 0.2% increase in the last report, which may give the USD some support.
• This is also the final week before EOFY, so we can expect a surge in import/exports more than usual, meaning higher than normal volatility.
| Economic Calendar: Mon 24th June 2024 – Fri 28th June 2024 (High Impact) (AU/US) | |||||
| Day | Time (AEDT) | Event | Country | Forecast | Previous |
| Wed | 12:00am | CB Consumer Confidence | US | 100.2 | 102.0 |
| 11:30am | CPI y/y | AU | 3.5% | 3.6% | |
| Thur | 10:30pm | Final GDP q/q | US | 1.4% | 1.3% |
| Unemployment Claims | US | 240K | 238K | ||
| Fri | 12:00am | Pending Home Sales m/m | US | TBA | -7.7% |
| 10:30pm | Core PCE Price Index m/m | US | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| Sat | 12:00am | Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment | US | 65.9 | 65.6 |
Source: forexfactory.com