• US data heavy this week with NFP headlining, a US bank holiday & FOMC Minutes.
• NFP Employment Change expected +189K change and unemployment rate steady at 4.0%.
• Expect the AUDUSD to consolidate this week, ranging from 0.6630 to 0.6699.
• Welcome to a new financial year!
• AUD is expected to keep within the 66c – 67c range this week.
• The unexpected uplift in CPI from last week’s reading reiterates the higher for longer rates strategy, strengthening the AUDUSD.
• Futures markets are surprisingly pricing in approx. 50% chance of a rate hike by year-end.
• No high-impact AU data this week, only US, meaning AUDUSD will follow the USD.
• A strong NFP print on Friday indicates strength for the USD and weakness for the AUD, with a positive change of +189K expected, with the unemployment rate steady at 4.0%. Any unexpected result may result in USD weakness.
• A US bank holiday will also result in thin liquidity/volatility on Thursday (AEST).
| Economic Calendar: Mon 1st July 2024 – Fri 5th July 2024 (High Impact) (AU/US) | |||||
| Day | Time (AEDT) | Event | Country | Forecast | Previous |
| Tues | 12:00am | ISM Manufacturing PMI | US | 49.2 | 48.7 |
| 11:30pm | Fed Chair Powell Speaks | US | N/A | N/A | |
| Wed | 12:00am | JOLTS Job Openings | US | 7.86M | 8.06M |
| 10:15pm | Unemployment Claims | US | 156K | 152K | |
| Thur | 12:00am | ISM Services PMI | US | 235K | 233K |
| 4:00am | FOMC Meeting Minutes | US | 52.5 | 53.8 | |
| All Day | Bank Holiday | US | N/A | N/A | |
| Fri | 10:30pm | Average Hourly Earnings m/m | US | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| Non-Farm Employment Change | US | 189K | 272K | ||
| Unemployment Rate | US | 4.0% | 4.0% | ||
Source: forexfactory.com