• US data is heavy this week with no high-impact AU data; therefore, USD drives AUDUSD.
• US CPI is the headliner this week with a drop expected of 3.3% -> 3.1%, which is +ve for AUDUSD.
• Expect the AUDUSD to consolidate this week, ranging from 0.6671 to 0.6789.
• AUDUSD broke through the key technical level of 67c last week with the help of US employment.
• Without high-impact data in the AU market this week, we expect the USD to drive the AUDUSD pair predominantly.
• There is still much more upside for AUD as global CPI steadily falls and rate cut chatter increases.
• The US CPI event will be the key headliner for this week, with CPI y/y expected to FALL to 3.1% from 3.3%. This is positive for the AUDUSD pair.
• Core CPI m/m remains steady @ 0.2%, which could adjust market pricing for the estimated two rate cuts by year-end (0.50%).
• As the AUDUSD drives higher, we will start to see more flows from importers buying, which will add to the strength of the AUD currency.
• Make way for the AUD bulls!
| Economic Calendar: Mon 8th July 2024 – Fri 12th July 2024 (High Impact) (AU/US) | |||||
| Day | Time (AEDT) | Event | Country | Forecast | Previous |
| Wed | 12:00am | Fed Chair Powell Testifies | US | N/A | N/A |
| Thur | 10:30pm | Core CPI m/m | US | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| CPI m/m | US | 0.1% | 0.0% | ||
| CPI y/y | US | 3.1% | 3.3% | ||
| Unemployment Claims | US | 236K | 238K | ||
| Fri | 10:30pm | Core PPI m/m | US | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| PPI m/m | US | 0.1% | -0.2% | ||
| Sat | 12:00am | Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment | US | 67.0 | 68.2 |
Source: forexfactory.com