• HUGE data-driven week, with AU CPI, US FOMC & US Employment – Expect lots of volatility.
• AU CPI expected to fall to 3.8% y/y, Fed to keep rates @ 5.50%, US employment @ +177k.
• Expect the AUDUSD to continue its bearish moves this week, ranging from 0.6473 to 0.6661.
• Expecting AUDUSD weakness this week as USD will primarily drive the currency pair, aiming for below 65c.
• AU CPI will weigh heavily on the AUDUSD with a lower CPI expected of 3.8% (-ve for AUDUSD) but +ve for interest rate cuts.
• Fed Funds rate is expected to remain at 5.50% which is widely expected, therefore a minimal impact on the currency pair.
• Keep an ear out for any changes in forward guidance or market pricing for the next rate cut
• US employment may have a significant effect on the currency pair with the unemployment rate to remain the same at 4.1% and a net positive change of 177k in employment. Expecting a positive impact on the USD (strength).
• AUDUSD expected to weaken over this week, so be prepared for a bearish move below 65c.
| Economic Calendar: Mon 29nd July 2024 – Fri 2nd Aug 2024 (High Impact) (AU/US) | |||||
| Day | Time (AEDT) | Event | Country | Forecast | Previous |
| Wed | 12:00am | CB Consumer Confidence | USD | 99.8 | 100.4 |
| 11:30am | CPI q/q & CPI y/y | AUD | 1.0% / 3.8% | 1.0% / 4.0% | |
| 10:15pm | ADP Non-Farm Employment Change | USD | 166K | 150K | |
| 10:30pm | Employment Cost Index q/q | USD | 1.0% | 1.2% | |
| Thur | 12:00am | Pending Home Sales m/m | USD | 1.6% | -2.1% |
| 4:00am | Federal Funds Rate / Statement | USD | 5.50% | 5.50% | |
| 10:30pm | Unemployment Claims | USD | 239K | 235K | |
| Fri | 12:00am | ISM Manufacturing PMI | USD | 49.0 | 48.5 |
| 10:30pm | Unemployment Rate | USD | 4.1% | 4.1% | |
| Non-Farm Employment Change | USD | 177K | 206K | ||
Source: forexfactory.com