• US CPI is the key headliner for this week, coming in at a low forecast of 2.3% y/y.
• Bank holiday in AU on Monday = low AUD liquidity, but back to normal today.
• Expect AUDUSD to continue bearish moves this week, pivoting between 0.6683 & 0.6895.
• AUDUSD is expected to remain heavy this week (bearish) due to the conflict in the Middle East, which is affecting oil prices and other general commodity prices, which influences this pair.
• Expecting AUD to hover around the 67c handle as a support in the short-medium term, but overall bullish long term.
• The US CPI is released on Thursday this week. It is expected to come in at a low of 2.3% (2.5% prev), which is -ve for the USD and +ve for the AUD. However, as this is already priced in, any major surprise that falls short of expectations can benefit the USD.
• As the US CPI is within the target range, we can expect rate cuts in almost every meeting held by the FOMC.
• However, keep note that October is generally an interesting month for FX and Equities, historically being positive for USD, especially given that the US elections are one month away.
| Economic Calendar: Mon 7th October 2024 – Fri 11th October 2024 (High Impact) (AU/US) | |||||
| Day | Time (AEDT) | Event | Country | Forecast | Previous |
| Mon | All Day | Bank Holiday | AU | N/A | N/A |
| Thur | 5:00am | FOMC Meeting Minutes | US | N/A | N/A |
| 11:30pm | Core CPI m/m | US | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| CPI m/m | US | 0.1% | 0.2% | ||
| CPI y/y | US | 2.3% | 2.5% | ||
| Unemployment Claims | US | 231K | 225K | ||
| Fri | 11:30pm | Core PPI m/m | US | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| PPI m/m | US | 0.1% | 0.2% | ||
Source: forexfactory.com