• Key inflation readings this week are the key headliners for both AU & US markets.
• AU CPI forecasted @ 2.5% y/y (+0.4%), US PCE Core Index forecasted 0.3% m/m (same as prev).
• Expecting AU to remain bearish this week, hovering between 0.6401 & 0.6559.
• Expecting AUDUSD to trade bearish this week, heading closer to the 64c handle.
• Huge inflation week for AU & US markets with AU CPI to be released, forecasted @ 2.5% y/y (+0.4%) increase from the last reading. This is positive for the Aussie and potentially pushes out market pricing for the next rate cut.
• US Core PCE Index is expected to come in @ 0.3% m/m, the same as the last reading, which can also add to USD strength.
• The FOMC minutes are likely to provide more insight into the minds of the Fed and the next rate cut, which is likely to occur in December before year-end.
• The global rate cut cycle is starting to take full force, with Australia behind on the ball, but February 2025 appears to be the target date for the first cut!
• All eyes on the AU CPI!
| Economic Calendar: Mon 25th November 2024 – Fri 29th November 2024 (High Impact) (AU/US) | |||||
| Day | Time (AEDT) | Event | Country | Forecast | Previous |
| Wed | 2:00am | CB Consumer Confidence | US | 112.0 | 108.7 |
| 11:30am | CPI y/y | AU | 2.5% | 2.1% | |
| Thur | 12:30am | Prelim GDP q/q | US | 2.8% | 2.8% |
| Unemployment Claims | US | 220K | 213K | ||
| 2:00am | Core PCE Price Index m/m | US | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 6:00am | FOMC Meeting Minutes | US | N/A | N/A | |
| 7:55pm | RBA Gov Bullock Speaks | AU | N/A | N/A | |
| Fri | All Day | Bank Holiday | US | N/A | N/A |
Source: forexfactory.com