• US NFP & AU GDP the key headliners this week.
• AU GDP forecasted @ 0.5% m/m, US NFP forecasted +215K & 4.2% unemployment rate.
• Expecting AU to remain bearish this week, hovering between 0.6451 & 0.6547.
• AUD is likely to be weighed down by the strength of USD this week in the absence of high-impact data.
• We could see the AUD reach the lower pivot level of 0.6450 this week.
• This week’s key headliners are AU GDP and US NFP, with the NFP likely to move the markets by end of this week. This will be the last “proper” reading, as end of December is usually low volatility due to public holidays.
• Expecting AU GDP to remain strong @ +0.5% forecasted, with US NFP change +202K and the unemployment rate ticking up to 4.2% (+0.1%), which is negative for the USD (+AUD).
• US are still on track for their next rate cut, whilst AU still remains unclear, although highly likely that Q1 2025, will be their first rate cut, now that inflation has been within the target range for a few months.
• Watch this space as we head into end of year.
| Economic Calendar: Mon 2nd December 2024 – Fri 6th December 2024 (High Impact) (AU/US) | |||||
| Day | Time (AEDT) | Event | Country | Forecast | Previous |
| Tue | 2:00am | ISM Manufacturing PMI | US | 47.7 | 46.5 |
| Wed | 2:00am | JOLTS Job Openings | US | 7.49M | 7.44M |
| 11:30am | GDP q/q | AU | 0.5% | 0.2% | |
| Thur | 12:15am | ADP Non-Farm Employment Change | US | 166K | 233K |
| 2:00am | ISM Services PMI | US | 55.5 | 56.0 | |
| 5:45am | Fed Chair Powell Speaks | US | N/A | N/A | |
| Fri | 12:30am | Unemployment Claims | US | 215K | 213K |
| Sat | 12:30am | Non-Farm Employment Change | US | 202K | 12K |
| Unemployment Rate | US | 4.2% | 4.1% | ||
Source: forexfactory.com