• Heavy duty events this week with US FOMC decision, Retail Sales & PCE Price Index.
• US fe funds rate to fall to 4.50%, US retail sales @ 0.6% & PCE Price Index @ 0.2%.
• Expecting AU to remain bearish this week, hovering between 0.6306 & 0.6441.
• We expect AUD to continue its bearish trend to finish the year, heading towards 63c, a major support level (last time Oct ’23).
• Due to the lack of AUD data this week, we will see the USD drive the currency pair with multiple high-impact events on the US front, including the FOMC decision.
• FOMC is expected to drop the rate from 4.75% to 4.50%, an early Xmas gift for Americans, but can potentially provide a much-needed boost to the AUD.
• Other key data events can potentially add to USD strength, further pushing AUD to the 63c level or even lower.
• Let’s hope 2025 will bring a rebound to the AUD.
• This is our last weekly outlook for the year, and it will return at the end of January 2025. Thank you for your time and viewership, and let’s see what 2025 brings us!
| Economic Calendar: Mon 16th December 2024 – Fri 20th December 2024 (High Impact) (AU/US) | |||||
| Day | Time (AEDT) | Event | Country | Forecast | Previous |
| Tues | 1:45am | Flash Manufacturing PMI | US | 49.4 | 49.7 |
| Flash Services PMI | US | 55.7 | 56.1 | ||
| Wed | 12:30am | Core Retail Sales m/m | US | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Retail Sales m/m | US | 0.6% | 0.4% | ||
| Thur | 6:00am | Federal Funds Rate | US | 4.50% | 4.75% |
| FOMC Statement | US | N/A | N/A | ||
| 6:30am | FOMC Press Conference | US | N/A | N/A | |
| Fri | 12:30am | Final GDP q/q | US | 2.8% | 2.8% |
| Unemployment Claims | US | 245K | 242K | ||
| Sat | 12:30am | Core PCE Price Index m/m | US | 0.2% | 0.3% |
Source: forexfactory.com