* Aussie opens the week lower
* Quiet week for local and offshore economic data this week
* NZ households bracing for 75 basis point rate hike
The AUD/USD opens the week a touch lower after Sydney’s Friday close of 0.6707. After reaching a 2-month high of 0.6792 last Wednesday night, the Aussie spent the 2nd half of the week drifting lower as markets took a breather following a busy couple of weeks. It is worth noting just over 1 month ago, on the 13th October, the AUD/USD was trading at 0.6190, so from then until the last Wednesday (16th Nov.), the Aussie has appreciated 9.7%. Forecasting currency (and, in particular, the AUD) can be difficult at the best of times. A good example of this was last Thursday when the Australian Bureau of Statistics released the October job numbers. Data released showed the unemployment rate has fallen to 3.4% – a 48-year low! Good for Australia and normally good for the currency however, soon after, the Aussie fell and has continued to fall. Driving the AUD lower is a stronger USD, mostly on the back of forecasts….
A number of Central Banks be the focus this week. RBA Governor Lowe’s speech tomorrow and the minutes from the US Federal Reserve on Thursday will be keenly digested, and on Wednesday, the RBNZ is expected to increase its cash rate to 4.25%.
| Economic Calendar: Mon 21st – Fri 25th November | |||||
| Day | Time | Event | Impact | Consensus | Previous |
| Mon | 12:15pm | CNY PBoC Interest Rate Decision | HIGH | – | 3.65% |
| Tue | 8:45am | NZD Trade Balance (YoY) (Oct) | Med | -$12.52B | -$11.95B |
| 6pm | AUD RBA Governor Philip Lowe speech | HIGH | Speech | ||
| Wed | 9am | AUD Manufacturing Purchasing Mgr Index (Nov) | Med | 52.4 | 52.7 |
| 12pm | NZD RBNZ Interest Rate Decision | HIGH | 4.25% | 3.5% | |
| 8:30pm | GBP Manufacturing Purchasing Mgr Index (Nov) | Med | 45.6 | 46.2 | |
| Thu | 12:30am | USD Durable Goods Orders (Oct) | HIGH | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| 12:30am | USD Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 18) | Med | 224K | 222K | |
| 12:30am | USD Nondefense Capital Goods Orders (Oct) | HIGH | 0.4% | -0.4% | |
| 6am | USD FOMC Minutes (from Nov 1-2 meeting) | HIGH | Report | ||
| Fri | 8:45am | NZD Retail Sales (QoQ) (Q3) | HIGH | -3.4% | -2.3% |
| 10:30am | JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Nov) | Med | 3.6% | 3.5% | |