DAILY CURRENCY OUTLOOK

* Aussie inches higher

* US Thanksgiving Day Holiday yesterday makes for quiet 24 hours

* Focus turns to Australian inflation nos. due out next week

The past 24 hours have seen the AUD/USD trade in a narrow range of 0.6732 – 0.6777, and this morning the Aussie opened a touch higher from yesterday’s Sydney close of 0.6755. This lack of movement was largely due to an absence of local and offshore economic data and markets in the US being closed for Thanksgiving Day – a national holiday in the US and Canada that celebrates and gives thanks for the autumn harvest, a tradition that dates back to 1621. However, if we wind back 12 hours earlier to early Thursday morning, there was plenty of movement, and it was all up for the AUD. The rally began shortly after the release of some mixed US data – better-than-expected Durable Goods Orders (orders for the manufacture of, e.g. motor vehicles and appliances) offset by the highest weekly Jobless Claim (240K versus 224K expected) since June. Then things really got going as the Aussie moved from 0.6667 to 0.6735 in just over an hour following the release of the Federal Reserve Minutes from their meeting of Nov 1-2. In short, the Minutes reported that the Fed is “ready to begin hiking rates on smaller sizes”, which caused heavy selling of the greenback. Today is expected to be quiet as we gear up for next week.

Economic Calendar: Mon 21st – Fri 25th November
Day AEDT Event Impact Consensus Previous
Mon 12:15pm CNY PBoC Interest Rate Decision HIGH 3.65% 3.65%
Tue 8:45am NZD Trade Balance (YoY) (Oct) Med -$12.52B -$11.95B
  6pm AUD RBA Governor Philip Lowe speech HIGH Speech  
Wed 9am AUD Manufacturing Purchasing Mgr Index (Nov) Med 52.4 52.7
  12pm NZD RBNZ Interest Rate Decision HIGH 4.25% 3.5%
  8:30pm GBP Manufacturing Purchasing Mgr Index (Nov) Med 45.6 46.2
Thu 12:30am USD Durable Goods Orders (Oct) HIGH 0.4% 0.4%
  12:30am USD Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 18) Med 224K 222K
  12:30am USD Nondefense Capital Goods Orders (Oct) HIGH 0.4% -0.4%
  6am USD FOMC Minutes (Nov) HIGH Report  
Fri 8:45am NZD Retail Sales (QoQ) (Q3) HIGH -3.4% -2.3%
  10:30am JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Nov) Med 3.6% 3.5%

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