DAILY CURRENCY OUTLOOK

* Aussie opens slightly lower despite RBA rate hike

* Attention turns to Australian GDP numbers today

* Focus very much on the Fed meeting next week

The AUD opened this morning slightly lower against all major currencies despite yesterday’s interest rate rise by the RBA. Following the announcement and accompanying statement (in which the RBA said, not surprisingly, further increases in 2023 are expected) the Aussie rallied slightly to 0.6743 however it failed to kick on and opened this morning below yesterday’s close of 0.6730. Not that long ago, any increase in interest rates and higher commodity prices that we are currently seeing (especially Iron Ore, Gold and Coal – all major Australian exports) was good news for the AUD however, keeping the Aussie in check is the USD story. Strong US data late Monday, which followed better than expected US job numbers for November last Friday, have markets once again second guessing whether the US Fed will use their final meeting next week (13-14 December) to ease back on their aggressive rate stance or at the very least on their commentary. Today we have the release of Australian GDP numbers for Q3. Any number on either side of expectations could see some short-term moves, but the focus very much remains on next week.

Economic Calendar: Mon 5th – Fri 9th December
Day AEDT Event Impact Consensus Previous
Mon 11am AUD TD Securities Inflation (YoY) (Nov) Med 5.2%
  11:45am CNY Caixin Services Purchasing Mgr Index (Nov) Med 48.8 48.4
  8pm EUR Retail Sales (YoY) (Oct) HIGH -2.6% 0%
Tues 1am USD ISM Services Purchasing Mgr Index (Nov) HIGH 53.1 54.4
  2:30pm AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision HIGH 3.10% 2.85%
  11:30pm USD Goods & Services Trade Balance (Oct) Med -$78.1B -$73.28B
Wed 11:30am AUD Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q3) HIGH 0.7% 0.9%
  1pm CNY Trade Balance USD (Nov) Med $78.1B $85.15B
  8pm EUR Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Q3) HIGH 2.1% 2.1%
Thu 11:30am AUD Trade Balance (MoM) (Oct) HIGH 1,155M 12,444M
  11:30pm USD Initial Jobless Claims (Dec 2) Med 230K 225K
Fri 11:30am CNY Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Nov) HIGH 1% 2.1%

CurrenCDAILY CURRENCY OUTLOOK