- We have Q1 23 US GDP this week, which could materially impact the USD & US interest rates.
- Could potentially see AUD/USD hovering around 0.6650, especially if AU Q1 23 CPI is weaker than expected.
- US PMI’s for April were stronger than expected, but ISMs will be closely watched.
• USD & US rates will be impacted by various US economic data this week, including US GDP & PCE Deflator.
• Expecting GDP to expand by approx. 1.6% in Q1, reflecting a potential surge in consumer spending.
• US inflation is still sticky and high but gradually easing.
• There is a strong possibility that the FOMC may still hike at least one more time which will potentially support the USD to rise.
• AUDUSD faces the material Q1 23 CPI numbers on Wednesday, where the expected trimmed mean CPI increase is 1.4 %/qtr.
• Commentary provided by the major banks are suggesting that hiking rates are working to restrict demand, suggesting downside risk to the CPI, interest rates, and the Aussie.
• Weaker than expected NZ CPI numbers also suggest that AU CPI may potentially be weaker, as their economies are similar in nature.
• A weakening global economy may potentially weigh on commodity prices and AUDEUR.
| Economic Calendar: Mon 24th April 2023 – 28th April 2023 (High Impact) | |||||
| Day | Time | Event | Country | Consensus | Previous |
| Wed | 12:00am | CB Consumer Confidence | US | 104.1 | 104.2 |
| 11:30am | CPI q/q | AU | 1.3% | 1.9% | |
| CPI y/y | 6.6% | 6.8% | |||
| Trimmed mean CPI q/q | 1.4% | 1.7% | |||
| Thur | 10:30pm | Advance GDP q/q | US | 2.0% | 2.6% |
| Unemployment Claims | 249K | 245K | |||
| Fri | 10:30pm | Core PCE price index m/m | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| Employment Cost Index q/q | 1.1% | 1.0% | |||
| Sat | 12:00am | UoM Consumer Sentiment | 63.5 | 63.5 | |