• A few high-impact events this week for AU & US markets, resulting in potential volatility.
• AUDUSD to be influenced by US retail sales and AU employment, as well as USD being oversold.
• Expecting the AUDUSD to range between 0.6710 and 0.6620 this week on technical analysis.
• Based on technical analysis, the USD is currently oversold on the relative strength indicator, meaning there is room for USD gains.
• We anticipate that US retail sales may have recovered strongly in April following two straight months of contraction.
• There are indications that the US labour market is cooling and core CPI is easing.
• Based on the above, we could anticipate that the USD might gain additional strength this week.
• However, the risk is to the downside, where the data is weaker because of higher interest rates.
• Australian employment could forecast a weaker-than-expected number following two very strong months of expansion.
• One factor that could challenge the Aussie strength and see weakness in the near term is a potential strong increase in China’s infrastructure spending.
| Economic Calendar: Mon 15th May 2023 – Fri 19th May 2023 (High Impact) (AU/US/CH) | |||||
| Day | Time | Event | Country | Consensus | Previous |
| Mon | 10:30pm | Empire State Manufacturing Index | US | -3.7 | 10.8 |
| Tues | 11:30am | RBA Monetary Policy Minutes | AU | ||
| 10:30pm | Retail Sales m/m | US | 0.8% | -1.0% | |
| Wed | 11:30am | Wage Price Index q/q | AU | 0.9% | 0.8% |
| Thur | 11:30am | Employment / Unemployment Rate | AU | 21.1K | 53.0K |
| 10:30pm | Unemployment Claims | US | 251K | 264K | |
| Fri | 12:00am | Fed Chair Power Speech | US | ||