DAILY CURRENCY OUTLOOK

* Aussie opens slightly lower after choppy 24 hours

* RBA hikes rates by 0.25% as expected. Takes a wait and see approach

* Attention turns to US Fed decision and commentary

The AUD/USD has opened this morning slightly lower from yesterday’s close of 0.6425. However, the past 24 hours have been quite eventful and choppy as the Aussie reached a high of 0.6463 and a low of 0.6378. Not long before the RBA announcement, the AUD rallied to 0.6447 in anticipation the RBA was going to hike by 50 basis points. This was short-lived and the Aussie quickly fell to around 64 cents. Later in the afternoon, news came out of China that preparations are underway to exit their strict zero-COVID policy and combined with upbeat Chinese manufacturing data, this pushed the Aussie higher. Again this was relatively short-lived as overnight better than expected US jobs and manufacturing data have provided further ammunition for the US Federal Reserve to continue with its aggressive rate stance. The Fed, who are currently meeting (with the decision due early tomorrow morning AEDT) is expected to increase rates by 75 basis points however, some economists are tipping they may go as high as 100 bps. Could be another eventful 24 hours for the Aussie battler!

Economic Calendar: Mon 31st October – Fri 4th November
Event Impact Consensus Previous  
AUD Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep) HIGH 0.6% 0.6%  
CNY Manufacturing Purchasing Mgr Index (Oct) HIGH 50 50.1  
EUR Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Q3) HIGH 2.1% 4.1%  
AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision HIGH 2.85% 2.6%  
USD Manufacturing Purchasing Mgr Index (Oct) HIGH 50 50.9  
NZD Unemployment Rate (Q3) HIGH 3.2% 3.3%  
USD Fed Interest Rate Decision HIGH 4.0% 3.25%  
USD Fed Monetary Policy Statement HIGH Report    
AUD Trade Balance (MoM) (Sep) HIGH 9,000M 8,324M  
GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision HIGH 3.0% 2.25%  
AUD RBA Monetary Policy Statement HIGH Report    
USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct) HIGH 220K 263K  

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