Summary
• We have high-impact data this week for both AU/US markets, which could impact the AUD/USD.
• USD likely to trade within the range this week/consolidate after last week’s big drop.
• Expecting the AUDUSD to range between 0.6560 and 0.6450 this week on technical analysis.
-This week’s AU/USD data can provide a lift to either side of the coin, depending on whether there are any surprising results.
-The non-farm payrolls on Friday can provide a boost to the USD should the actual number exceed the forecasted and the unemployment rate remains the same or improves.
-The US debt ceiling has weighed on last week where a deal has been struck & agreed upon between US President Biden and Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy.
-There is still some uncertainty, whether the debt ceiling will be lifted, which can cause some volatility in the markets, but it’s not clear how much of the ceiling has been lifted.
-AUD/USD is likely to remain heavy this week, taking more direction from the US.
-However, AU’s CPI numbers will take centre stage for the local market with the expectation of a small uptick in inflation, 6.3% to 6.4% y/y (negative for the AUD/USD).
-Risk is to the downside, where the Aussie could end up at potentially 0.6400 by the end of June.
| Economic Calendar: Mon 29th May 2023 – Fri 2nd June 2023 (High Impact) (AU/US/CH) | |||||
| Day | Time | Event | Country | Forecast | Previous |
| Wed | 12:00am | CB Consumer Confidence | US | 99.1 | 101.3 |
| 9:00am | RBA Gov Lowe Speech | AU | N/A | N/A | |
| 11:30am | CPI y/y | AU | 6.4% | 6.3% | |
| Thur | 12:00am | JOLTS Job Openings | US | 9.41M | 9.59M |
| 10:15pm | ADP Non-Farm Employment Change | US | 167K | 296K | |
| 10:30pm | Unemployment Claims | US | 236K | 229K | |
| Fri | 12:00am | ISM Manufacturing PMI | US | 47.0 | 47.1 |
| 10:30pm | Non-Farm Payrolls / Unemployment Rate | US | 189K/3.5% | 253K/3.4% | |