- PCE Index in the USD & AUS CPI are the key headliners this week and market moving.
- Aussie seems to have found support around 64c, now beginning to trend higher.
- Expecting the AUDUSD to range between 0.6380 and 0.6510 this week on technical analysis.
• USD is likely to continue trending higher due to US economic data exceeding expectations.
• US PCE inflation is the key US data point to monitor this week.
• A downside surprise to the above data point could see the USD fall.
• There’s news around the US government shutting down indefinitely regarding public service funding; therefore, any economic data out next week could be delayed.
• Shutdowns are a potential factor for currency volatility which could strengthen the USD.
• Australia CPI is the key event to watch this week and is expected to go up slightly from last quarter’s reading.
• 64c remains to be a key support level for the Aussie on the weekly chart.
• Long-term bond yields are also starting to have an impact on the currency, with USD treasury yields at record highs again and interest rate differentials with Aussie bonds remaining substantially higher, leading to a stronger USD.
| Economic Calendar: Mon 25th September 2023 – Fri 29th September 2023 (High Impact) (AU/US) | |||||
| Day | Time (AEST) | Event | Country | Forecast | Previous |
| Wed | 12:00am | CB Consumer Confidence | US | 105.5 | 106.1 |
| 11:30am | CPI y/y | AU | 5.2% | 4.9% | |
| Thur | 10:30pm | Final GDP q/q | US | 2.3% | 2.1% |
| Unemployment Claims | US | 213K | 201K | ||
| Fri | 6:00am | Fed Chair Powell Speaks | US | N/A | N/A |
| 10:30pm | Core PCE Price Index m/m | US | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| Sat | 12:00am | Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment | US | 67.7 | 67.7 |
Source: forexfactory.com