• Heavy data this week for the US and the RBA announcement in AU as well.
• Aussie broken under the 64c level with strong selling pressure.
• Expecting the AUDUSD to range between 0.6250 and 0.6420 this week on technical analysis.
• USD is likely to continue heading upward this week as the US economy seems to be more resilient than expected and continues to outperform its peers.
• US market has heavy data this week with key releases on Employment (NFP), FED speech, JOLTS
• Jobless claims continue to remain low which is a positive sign for employment, so NFP is expected to remain strong.
• The unemployment rate likely eased again.
• AU market has the RBA announcement which is expected to hold steady @ 4.10%.
• The market is pricing another 25bps rate hike but in early 2024, despite talks that it may happen at this meeting.
• If the RBA does hike, it’s likely to be closer to the end of 2023, rather than early 2024.
• Chinese holidays may keep the currency markets at bay this week and centred around the USD.
• AUD/USD is likely to continue its strong selling pressure downwards with the USD strengthening with the next key support at around 0.6240.
| Economic Calendar: Mon 2nd October 2023 – 6th October 2023 (High Impact) (AU/US) | |||||
| Day | Time (AEDT) | Event | Country | Forecast | Previous |
| Mon | All Day | Bank Holiday | AU | N/A | N/A |
| Tues | 1:00am | ISM Manufacturing PMI | US | 47.8 | 47.6 |
| 2:00am | Fed Chair Powell Speaks | US | N/A | N/A | |
| 2:30pm | Cash Rate / Statement | AU | 4.10% | 4.10% | |
| Wed | 1:00am | JOLTS Job Openings | US | 8.81M | 8.83M |
| 11:15pm | ADP Non-Farm Employment Change | US | 153K | 177K | |
| Thur | 1:00am | ISM Services PMI | US | 53.5 | 54.5 |
| 11:30pm | Unemployment Claims | US | 211K | 204K | |
| Fri | 11:30pm | Non-Farm Employment Change | US | 169K | 187K |
| Unemployment Rate | US | 3.7% | 3.8% | ||
Source: forexfactory.com