• CPI & FOMC minutes are the key focus this week for the US.
• Aussie is still hovering around the 64c level, still in a consolidation phase.
• Expecting the AUDUSD to range between 0.6300 and 0.6460 this week on technical analysis.
• Global news of a war between Israel & forces in Palestine is causing strain on the global economy, potentially undermining risk currencies like the AUD/NZD & surging volatility in the USD.
• Bond markets have continued to take a hit due to higher US interest rates, causing tension globally.
• There are still talks of one more rate hike in the US, which will likely be at the next two meetings.
• US CPI is the key data event for this week, and we estimate an increase of approx. 0.3% m/m with a headline rate of 3.6%, down from 3.7% last reading, which is a negative for the USD.
• No key data events in the AU market this week.
• AUD/USD remains weak around the 64c level, with the potential to head towards 63c this week.
• China still maintains a key position in determining volatility in the AUD with the reopening of Chinese markets and releasing China’s CPI.
• The war with Israel could be viewed negatively for the Aussie, decreasing its strength over this week as commodity asset prices would take a hit (like oil & gas increasing due to supply concerns)
| Economic Calendar: Mon 9th October 2023 – 13th October 2023 (High Impact) (AU/US) | |||||
| Day | Time (AEDT) | Event | Country | Forecast | Previous |
| Mon | All Day | Bank Holiday | US | N/A | N/A |
| Wed | 11:30pm | Core PPI / PPI | US | 0.2% / 0.3% | 0.2% / 0.7% |
| Thur | 5:00am | FOMC Meeting Minutes | US | N/A | N/A |
| 11:30pm | Core CPI m/m | US | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| CPI m/m | US | 0.3% | 0.6% | ||
| CPI y/y | US | 3.6% | 3.7% | ||
| Unemployment Claims | US | 216K | 207K | ||
| Sat | 1:00am | Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment | US | 67.5 | 68.1 |
Source: forexfactory.com