Summary
• Retail Sales/FOMC Speech (US) & Employment/RBA Speech are the key focuses for this week.
• Aussie lost strength last week, currently sitting around 63c, but still looking weak.
• Expecting the AUDUSD to range between 0.6240 and 0.6400 this week on technical analysis.
• USD will likely stay on top this week as we have some key data, including the Fed Powell Speech.
• The consistent message of higher for longer may be reiterated, and the impact of higher rates on treasury yields and currency.
• The ongoing bad news from the war in the Middle East could further support the strength of the USD over this week.
• US Retail sales and Powell’s Speech are the key highlights for this week in the US market.
• AUD/USD could be subject to heavy downside due to the strengthening of USD and local/international data.
• Australian employment numbers will also play a huge role in conjunction with RBA Gov speech, potentially boosting the Aussie.
• We expect a slight increase in employment but no change in the unemployment rate, which could support the AUD/USD.
• However, the ongoing war in the Middle East and the FOMC speech could weigh heavily on the Aussie dollar for this week.
| Economic Calendar: Mon 16th October 2023 – 20th October 2023 (High Impact) (AU/US) | |||||
| Day | Time (AEDT) | Event | Country | Forecast | Previous |
| Mon | 11:30pm | Empire State Manufacturing Index | US | -6.4 | 1.9 |
| Tues | 11:30am | Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes | AU | N/A | N/A |
| 11:30pm | Core Retail Sales & Retail Sales | US | 0.2% / 0.3% | 0.6% / 0.6% | |
| Wed | 9:35pm | RBA Gov Bullock Speaks | AU | N/A | N/A |
| Thur | 11:30am | Employment Change | AU | 20.9K | 64.9K |
| Unemployment Rate | AU | 3.7% | 3.7% | ||
| 11:30pm | Unemployment Claims | US | 210K | 209K | |
| Fri | 3:00am | Fed Chair Powell Speaks | US | N/A | N/A |
Source: forexfactory.com