• We have high-impact data this week for the AU & US markets, which could impact the AUD/USD.
• AUDUSD will be heavily influenced this week by the US CPI & FOMC & AU employment data.
• Expecting the AUDUSD to range between 0.6690 and 0.6800 this week on technical analysis.
-AUD/USD will be persuaded by the USD (and US data), along with some Chinese data and AU employment.
-USD is likely to remain heavy this week with the US CPI released tonight AEDT.
-We are expecting a significant reduction in the y/y number, which is positive for the USD.
-Also, expect the USD to ease provided the FOMC have a dovish tone in their statement.
-USD is expected to be volatile this week with the CPI & FOMC data.
-If the US CPI is within expectations and the FOMC has a dovish tone, then the AUD/USD could potentially touch 0.6800 this week.
-AU May Employment will also influence the currency pair depending on the employment change and unemployment rate.
-If the unemployment rate unexpectedly increases again, AUD/USD may ease modestly but keep in the recent trading range mentioned above.
| Economic Calendar: Mon 12th June 2023 – Fri 16th June 2023 (High Impact) (AU/US) | |||||
| Day | Time | Event | Country | Forecast | Previous |
| Tues | 10:30pm | Core CPI m/m & CPI y/y | US | 0.4%/4.1% | 0.4%/4.9% |
| Wed | 10:30pm | Core PPI m/m & PPI m/m | US | 0.2%/-0.1% | 0.2%/0.2% |
| Thur | 4:00am | FOMC Fed Funds Rate / Statement | US | 5.25% | 5.25% |
| 11:30am | Employment Change | AU | 17.1K | -4.3K | |
| Unemployment Rate | AU | 3.7% | 3.7% | ||
| 10:30pm | Core Retail Sales / Retail Sales | US | 0.1%/-0.2% | 0.4%/0.4% | |
| Empire State Manufacturing Index | US | -15.0 | -31.8 | ||
| Sat | 12:00am | Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment | US | 60.1 | 59.2 |