• Heavy duty week with NFP, US Fed Funds & AU CPI being the key headliners.
• We expect the Fed Funds to keep rates steady and for AU CPI to drop materially.
• We expect the AUDUSD pair to experience volatility and range from 0.6540 to 0.6610.
• Heavy duty economic week this week with NFP, Fed Funds & AU CPI to headline this week, therefore we expect the market to experience high levels of volatility during these economic events.
• The key focus will be the forward guidance with rate cuts, with the first expected in May, which will pave the path for the other central banks to begin cutting; all eyes are on this.
• Expecting the Fed funds rate to remain the same, AU CPI to drop 0.5% y/y, and US employment to remain positive in job change.
• AUDUSD will take its cues mostly from the economic events and USD performance.
• We expect the AUDUSD pair to remain weak over the course of this week with USD strength.
| Economic Calendar: Mon 29th January 2024 – Fri 2nd February 2024 (High Impact) (AU/US) | |||||
| Day | Time (AEDT) | Event | Country | Forecast | Previous |
| Wed | 2:00am | CB Consumer Confidence | US | 113.9 | 110.7 |
| 11:30am | CPI q/q & CPI y/y | AU | 0.8% / 3.7% | 1.2% / 4.3% | |
| Thur | 12:15am | ADP Non-Farm Employment Change | US | 143K | 164K |
| 6:00am | Federal Funds Rate / FOMC Statement | US | 5.50% | 5.50% | |
| Fri | 12:30am | Unemployment Claims | US | 211K | 214K |
| Sat | 12:30am | Non-Farm Employment Change | US | 177K | 216K |
| Unemployment Rate | US | 3.8% | 3.7% | ||
Source: forexfactory.com