• Heavy data week with the RBA & FOMC Cash Rate decisions + AU Employment.
• Anticipate no change for both meetings, but we expect a potential change in forward guidance.
• We expect the AUDUSD to experience medium-level volatility and range from 0.6528 to 0.6615.
• There is heavy data this week, with the RBA and FOMC cash rate decisions headlining; although both decisions are expected to remain the same, more importance is placed on the respective boards’ forward guidance commentary.
• Both decisions could lower the AUDUSD, given that the US CPI is flat or slightly increasing; a reduction in rate cuts on the FOMC dot plot could strengthen the USD.
• We also have AU employment, where there is expected to be a slight increase in job numbers by +40.2k and the unemployment rate to drop to 4.0% from 4.1%, which could be viewed positively for the Aussie, seeing further strength.
• Both the cash rate meetings + labour employment suggest a higher AUDUSD this week.
• If there is any unexpected data or missed forecasts, we could see more volatility in the pair.
| Economic Calendar: Mon 18th March 2024 – 22th March 2024 (High Impact) (AU/US) | |||||
| Day | Time (AEDT) | Event | Country | Forecast | Previous |
| Tues | 2:30pm | RBA Cash Rate / Statement | AU | 4.35% | 4.35% |
| 3:30pm | RBA Press Conference | AU | N/A | N/A | |
| Thur | 5:00am | Federal Funds Rate / FOMC Statement | US | 5.50% | 5.50% |
| 5:30am | FOMC Press Conference | US | N/A | N/A | |
| 11:30am | Employment Change | AU | 40.2K | 0.5K | |
| Unemployment Rate | AU | 4.0% | 4.1% | ||
| 11:30pm | Unemployment Claims | US | 214K | 209K | |
| Fri | 12:45am | Flash Manufacturing PMI | US | 51.8 | 52.2 |
| 12:45am | Flash Services PMI | US | 52.0 | 52.3 | |
| Sat | 12:00am | Fed Chair Powell Speaks | US | N/A | N/A |
Source: forexfactory.com