• Short week due to the Easter long weekend but a few high-impact events in AU & US.
• AU CPI expected to increase to 3.5% (+0.1%) and US PCE expected to decrease to 0.3% (-0.1%)
• We expect the AUDUSD to experience bullish momentum and range from 0.6467 to 0.6598.
• AUDUSD is likely to consolidate until the release of the AU CPI, which is expected to increase slightly by 0.1% to 3.5%. This is negative for the economy but positive for extending high-interest rates, which is positive for the AUD. Vice versa, if the CPI falls, expect a price drop.
• The US also has the PCE Price Index, which represents US inflation as well, dropping by 0.1%, which could be negative for the USD, adding strength to the AUD.
• We also have a public holiday in AU on Friday for Good Friday, meaning liquidity will be very thin that day.
• We expect the FOMC to start their cutting cycle in or around July, with an expected three rate cuts this year based on the FED dot plot.
• Overall, expect bullish momentum on most AUD pairs this week
| Economic Calendar: Mon 25th March 2024 – 29th March 2024 (High Impact) (AU/US) | |||||
| Day | Time (AEDT) | Event | Country | Forecast | Previous |
| Wed | 1:00am | CB Consumer Confidence | US | 106.9 | 106.7 |
| 11:30am | CPI y/y | AU | 3.5% | 3.4% | |
| Thur | 9:00am | FOMC Member Waller Speaks | US | N/A | N/A |
| 11:30am | Retail Sales m/m | AU | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 11:30pm | Final GDP q/q | US | 3.2% | 3.2% | |
| 11:30pm | Unemployment Claims | US | 214K | 210K | |
| Fri | 1:00am | Pending Home Sales m/m | US | 1.5% | -4.9% |
| 1:00am | Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment | US | 76.5 | 76.5 | |
| All Day | Bank Holiday | AU | N/A | N/A | |
| 11:30pm | Core PCE Price Index m/m | US | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
Source: forexfactory.com