• Short week due to Easter long weekend but a few high-impact events in AU & US.
• AU monetary policy minutes (low impact). US NFP to headline this week with a strong uplift (+205K)to job numbers, but the unemployment rate to remain the same (3.9%).
• We expect the AUDUSD to be bearish this week and range from 0.6446 to 0.6520.
• USD can look to consolidate this week, with any major impact likely to occur from JPY intervention or the NFP numbers on Friday (should there be a surprise result).
• AUD on the other hand, looking quite subdued and can fall further this week with support around 64c.
• The RBA minutes will be key to identify any indicators for change in rhetoric on interest rate cuts as we’re expecting a shift in tone with a more dovish stance.
• US NFP expected to add another 205K jobs which is positive for the USD, with the unemployment rate expected to remain the same at 3.9%.
• With the first FOMC rate cut around the corner, we could see some unexpected & choppy price action from the AUDUSD pair in the coming months.
| Economic Calendar: Tues 2nd April 2024 – 5th April 2024 (High Impact) (AU/US) | |||||
| Day | Time (AEDT) | Event | Country | Forecast | Previous |
| Tue | 1:00am | ISM Manufacturing PMI | US | 48.5 | 47.8 |
| 11:30am | Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes | AU | N/A | N/A | |
| Wed | 1:00am | JOLTS Job Openings | US | 8.76M | 8.86M |
| 11:15pm | ADP Non-Farm Employment Change | US | 148K | 140K | |
| Thur | 1:00am | ISM Services PMI | US | 52.8 | 52.6 |
| 3:10am | Fed Chair Powell Speaks | US | N/A | N/A | |
| 11:30pm | Unemployment Claims | US | 213K | 210K | |
| Fri | 11:30pm | Non-Farm Employment Change | US | 205K | 275K |
| Unemployment Rate | US | 3.9% | 3.9% | ||
Source: forexfactory.com