• Data heavy week this week, especially in the US, with FOMC & NFP headlining.
• FOMC is expected to keep rates on hold (5.50%), with NFP a strong positive employment change.
• We expect the AUDUSD to be bearish this week and range from 0.6500 to 0.6587.
• Given the heavy data releases in the US market, AUD will be largely guided by USD this week.
• We could see a potential test of the 64c level if the USD gains strength this week.
• Markets’ overall message is that the USD economy is still strong, which provides a basis for a stronger USD.
• US inflation remains sticky and will take longer than initially expected to reach the FOMC target, while the surprise AU CPI could also suggest a delayed rate cut.
• The FOMC is widely expected to keep rates on hold, but any rate cut change to this result can cause a huge market shake-up, potentially seeing the AUDUSD skyrocket to 66c and beyond.
| Economic Calendar: Mon 29th April 2024 – Fri 3rd May 2024 (High Impact) (AU/US) | |||||
| Day | Time (AEDT) | Event | Country | Forecast | Previous |
| Tues | 11:30am | Retail Sales m/m | AU | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| 10:30pm | Employment Cost Index q/q | US | 1.0% | 0.9% | |
| Wed | 12:00am | CB Consumer Confidence | US | 104.0 | 104.7 |
| 10:15pm | ADP Non-Farm Employment Change | US | 179K | 184K | |
| 11:45pm | Final Manufacturing PMI | US | 49.9 | 49.9 | |
| Thur | 12:00am | ISM Manufacturing PMI | US | 50.1 | 50.3 |
| JOLTS Job Openings | US | 8.68M | 8.76M | ||
| 4:00am | Federal Funds Rate / Statement | US | 5.50% | 5.50% | |
| 10:30pm | Unemployment Claims | US | 212K | 207K | |
| Non-Farm Employment Change | US | 243K | 303K | ||
| Unemployment Rate | US | 3.8% | 3.8% | ||
Source: forexfactory.com