• Last week’s heavy data saw USD weakness, but this week’s data is minimal, so there’s less impact.
• RBA is headlining this week, albeit no change is expected in the cash rate @ 4.35%.
• We expect the AUDUSD to be bullish this week and range from 0.6500 to 0.6684.
• The 175k increase in NFP was positive, although it fell short of expectations, hence the significant jump in the Aussie last week (USD weakness).
• The unemployment rate also increased from 3.8% to 3.9%, which is negative for the USD.
• The USD is likely to consolidate this week due to the lack of high-impact data, although the RBA’s cash rate decision will be the key headliner for the AUD.
• We expect the RBA to keep the cash rate at 4.35% and maintain a neutral bias.
• Should the RBA change their directional bias, this can significantly impact the market.
• With talks of a potential RBA rate hike, all eyes will be on this month’s decision.
• We expect the Aussie to hover around the 66c level.
| Economic Calendar: Mon 6th May 2024 – Fri 10th May 2024 (High Impact) (AU/US) | |||||
| Day | Time (AEDT) | Event | Country | Forecast | Previous |
| Tues | 2:30pm | Cash Rate / Statement | AU | 4.35% | 4.35% |
| 3:30pm | RBA Press Conference | US | N/A | N/A | |
| Thur | 10:30pm | Unemployment Claims | US | 211K | 208K |
| Sat | 12:00am | Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment | US | 76.3 | 77.2 |
Source: forexfactory.com