• There are minimal economic events this week, so there is less volatility in the US/AU markets.
• Core PCE Price Index, this week’s key headliner, could drive the AUDUSD with a +0.2% m/m.
• Expect the AUDUSD to continue its bearish moves this week, ranging from 0.6647 to 0.6717.
• JOE BIDEN IS OUT OF THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE.
• Although this is important for US elections, it’s not as materially important for the AUDUSD, although there might be a slight impact.
• AUDUSD will take its cues from the US market this week as there are no high-impact AU events.
• USD is likely to ease this week, with PCE inflation being the headliner, with an estimate of 0.2% growth m/m which could be negative for the AUDUSD pair.
• US data should provide an overall picture of the economy’s situation regarding interest rates. The timing of the first cut remains to be the million-dollar question, although it is imminent.
• As more global interest rate cuts are pencilled, we could start to see the USD fall bearish over the next few months, which is positive for the AUD. Watch this space folks.
| Economic Calendar: Mon 22nd July 2024 – Fri 26th July 2024 (High Impact) (AU/US) | |||||
| Day | Time (AEDT) | Event | Country | Forecast | Previous |
| Wed | 11:45pm | Flash Manufacturing PMI | US | 51.6 | 51.6 |
| Flash Services PMI | US | 54.5 | 55.3 | ||
| Thur | 10:30pm | Advance GDP q/q | US | 1.9% | 1.4% |
| Unemployment Claims | US | 239K | 243K | ||
| Fri | 10:30pm | Core PCE Price Index m/m | US | 0.2% | 0.1% |
Source: forexfactory.com