AU CPI is the key headliner this week for the AU & Core PCE Price Index headliner for the US market.
AU CPI is expected to fall to 3.4% y/y (from 3.8%), and Core PCE is expected to be 0.2% m/m (-ve for AUDUSD).
Expect the AUDUSD to experience a short rebound this week, ranging from 0.6703 to 0.6844.
We expect AUDUSD to experience a short rebound from current levels to 0.6750 (most likely post-CPI release) but maintain its bullish movement.
AU CPI is the key headliner this week. A strong drop to 3.4% from 3.8% is expected, which is positive for interest rate cuts but negative for AUDUSD.
Because of this, the market may bring forward its interest rate cut pricing, further reinforcing the bearish sentiment for the AUDUSD.
The core PCE price index is expected to gain +0.2 % in the US, which will have minimal impact on the USD. The easing cycle for US rates is expected to begin in September.
There is bearish sentiment for AUDUSD this week, a small rebound, but we may continue to see bullish movement overall as we arrive closer to 68c.
| Economic Calendar: Mon 26th August 2024 – Fri 30th August 2024 (High Impact) (AU/US) | |||||
| Day | Time (AEDT) | Event | Country | Forecast | Previous |
| Wed | 12:00am | CB Consumer Confidence | US | 100.2 | 100.3 |
| 11:30am | CPI y/y | AU | 3.4% | 3.8% | |
| Thur | 10:30pm | Prelim GDP q/q | US | 2.8% | 2.8% |
| Unemployment Claims | US | 234K | 232K | ||
| Fri | 10:30pm | Core PCE Price Index m/m | US | 0.2% | 0.2% |
Source: forexfactory.com