WEEKLY CURRENCY OUTLOOK

September 9, 2024 CurrenC
  • • US dominated this week with a HUGE CPI headliner; no major data from the AU market this week.
    • US CPI is expected to fall to 2.6% from 2.9%, which is great for combating inflation but not so great for AUD.
    • Expect the AUDUSD to continue its fall this week, pivoting between 0.6621 & 0.6756.

    • Expecting the AUDUSD pair to trade around the lower pivot level this week, hovering around 0.6650.

    • AU has no major data events this week, meaning the USD will be the primary driver of the pair.

    • US CPI is the headliner this week, with a forecasted drop of 0.3% to 2.6% from 2.9%, which is great for inflation but not so great for AUD. This brings inflation further within the target range.

    • This means US CPI can potentially alter expectations for the incumbent rate cut in this month’s meeting from 25pts to 50pts.

    • Last week’s labour market numbers injected huge amounts of volatility in the market, with the AUD falling off a cliff because numbers were weaker than expected.

    • Expect more negativity for the Aussie this week.

    Economic Calendar: Mon 9th September 2024 – Fri 13th September 2024 (High Impact) (AU/US)
    Day Time (AEDT) Event Country Forecast Previous
    Wed 10:30pm Core CPI m/m US 0.2% 0.2%
        CPI m/m US 0.2% 0.2%
        CPI y/y US 2.6% 2.9%
    Thur 10:30pm Core PPI m/m US 0.2% 0.0%
        PPI m/m US 0.2% 0.1%
        Unemployment Claims US 229K 227K

    Source: forexfactory.com

     

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CurrenCWEEKLY CURRENCY OUTLOOK