• It’s a big week with US FOMC and AU employment numbers, so expect loads of volatility.
• The first rate cut is expected in the US from 5.50% to 5.25%, and the AU unemployment rate is expected to remain the same.
• Expect AUDUSD to potentially rise this week (US rate cut), pivoting between 0.6640 & 0.6751.
• Expecting some big moves this week with FOMC and AU employment numbers likely to significantly impact the AUDUSD.
• We expect the AU unemployment rate to remain around 4.2% and employment change to increase by approximately 25k (+ve for AUD).
• FOMC is widely expected to begin the rate-cutting cycle with a 0.25% cut, the first developed economy to begin the cycle, paving the way for the rest of the developed economies (+ve for AUD).
• The risk is that FOMC could cut 50bps, pushing the AUD even higher and closer to 68c!
• Markets are pricing in a 50% chance of a 50bps rate cut, so it could go either way; however, bets are on a 25pt cut!
• Expect lots of volatility this week if anything unexpected happens.
| Economic Calendar: Mon 16th September 2024 – Fri 20th September 2024 (High Impact) (AU/US) | |||||
| Day | Time (AEDT) | Event | Country | Forecast | Previous |
| Tues | 10:30pm | Core Retail Sales m/m | US | 0.2% | 0.4% |
| Retail Sales m/m | US | -0.2% | 1.0% | ||
| Thur | 4:00am | Federal Funds Rate / Statement | US | 5.25% | 5.50% |
| FOMC Press Conference | US | N/A | N/A | ||
| 4:30am | Employment Change | AU | 25.8K | 58.2K | |
| 11:30am | Unemployment Rate | AU | 4.2% | 4.2% | |
| 10:30pm | Unemployment Claims | US | 232K | 230K | |
Source: forexfactory.com