• Huge week for AU market with RBA cash rate + CPI, Core PCE Index for US markets.
• The RBA is not expected to cut rates (4.35%), so the AU CPI is expected to drop significantly to 2.8%.
• Expect AUDUSD to rise this week, potentially pivoting between 0.6727 & 0.6863.
• We expect the AUDUSD to head above the 68c handle, potentially towards 69c on the RBA’s forward guidance.
• The RBA is widely expected to keep rates on hold at 4.35%, although CPI is released later this week, indicating a potential drop in inflation (-ve for AUD).
• AU CPI is expected to cool down, coming in at 2.8% from 3.5% (a material drop), which can impact the AUDUSD, which means a rate cut is more imminent.
• The US PCE core index, the main US inflation gauge, is also coming in at 0.2% m/m (prev 0.2%).
• The Fed cut their rates for the first time with a surprise 50pt cut from 5.50% to 5.00%, despite an expected 25pt cut, which shook the market.
• We also have FOMC chair speaking this week, keep an eye for indicators.
• AUDUSD to remain bullish this week.
| Economic Calendar: Mon 23rd September 2024 – Fri 27th September 2024 (High Impact) (AU/US) | |||||
| Day | Time (AEDT) | Event | Country | Forecast | Previous |
| Mon | 11:45pm | Flash Manufacturing PMI | US | 48.6 | 47.9 |
| Flash Services PMI | US | 55.3 | 55.7 | ||
| Tues | 2:30pm | Cash Rate / Statement | AU | 4.35% | 4.35% |
| Wed | 12:00am | CB Consumer Confidence | US | 103.5 | 103.3 |
| 11:30am | CPI y/y | AU | 2.8% | 3.5% | |
| Thur | 10:30pm | Final GDP q/q | US | 2.9% | 3.0% |
| Unemployment Claims | US | 224K | 219K | ||
| Thur | 11:20pm | Fed Chair Powell Speaks | US | N/A | N/A |
| Fri | 10:30pm | Core PCE Price Index m/m | US | 0.2% | 0.2% |
Source: forexfactory.com