• Fairly subdued week with AU Employment & US Retail sales headlining this week.
• AU Employment, positive change in numbers +25.2K & unemployment rate same @ 4.2%.
• Expecting AU to range this week with bullish bias, hovering between 0.6698 & 0.6807.
• We expect the AUDUSD to target the lower level of 0.6698 this week with AUD weakness.
• AU Employment will be the key headliner this week for AU markets, with a positive change expected of 25.2K and no change in the unemployment rate @ 4.2%.
• The market is still pricing in a small change of a 25bp cut in December 2024, with most of the market expecting a cut in February or thereafter.
• The US is currently outperforming other economies, hence the strength of the USD this week.
• Technically, we are starting to see a pivot form on the higher timeframes for USD, indicating a potential change in direction from a bullish to a bearish trend.
• The war in the Middle East on oil remains a heavy impact on the USD.
| Economic Calendar: Mon 14th October 2024 – Fri 18th October 2024 (High Impact) (AU/US) | |||||
| Day | Time (AEDT) | Event | Country | Forecast | Previous |
| Mon | All Day | Bank Holiday | US | N/A | N/A |
| Thur | 11:30am | Employment Change | AU | 25.2K | 47.5K |
| Unemployment Rate | AU | 4.2% | 4.2% | ||
| 11:30pm | Core Retail Sales m/m | US | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| Retail Sales m/m | US | 0.3% | 0.1% | ||
| Unemployment Claims | US | 241K | 258K | ||
Source: forexfactory.com