WEEKLY CURRENCY OUTLOOK

November 4, 2024 CurrenC
  • • HUGE WEEK IN THE US MARKETS WITH US ELECTIONS & CASH RATES FOR AU / US.
    • Trump expected to win, the US FOMC rate to fall, and the AU cash rate to remain the same.
    • Expecting AU to range this week with a bullish bias, hovering between 0.6526 & 0.6603.

    • AUD/USD is under immense pressure from US elections, FOMC & RBA announcements this week.

    • Starting with AU, the RBA is widely expected to keep rates on hold at 4.35% despite inflation being within the target range.

    • The US is expected to face some volatility heading into US elections, and candidate policies tend to impact AUD/USD. Trump is currently leading the poll, but key swing states could change the outcome drastically.

    • If Trump wins, the AUD/USD could fall significantly, however if Harris wins, we expect a rise of almost 2%.

    • The FOMC is also widely expected to cut by 0.25% to 4.75%, which is most likely priced in already, so there will be minimal impact on the pair.

    • Expect lots of volatility this week!

    Economic Calendar: Mon 4th November 2024 – Fri 8th November 2024 (High Impact) (AU/US)
    Day Time (AEDT) Event Country Forecast Previous
    Sun 7:00am Daylight Saving Time Shift US    
    Tues 2:30pm Cash Rate AU 4.35% 4.35%
        RBA Monetary Policy Statement AU    
    Wed 2:00am ISM Services PMI US 53.4 53.4
      All Day Presidential Election US    
      All Day Congressional Elections US    
    Fri 12:30am Unemployment Claims US 220K 216K
      6:00am Federal Funds Rate US 4.75% 5.00%
        FOMC Statement US    
      6:30am FOMC Press Conference US    

    Source: forexfactory.com

CurrenCWEEKLY CURRENCY OUTLOOK